Amid global turmoil and supply-chain disruptions, India, through its ‘fertiliser diplomacy‘, secured raw material and finished fertiliser from abroad in time and safeguarded the country’s food reserves. But the real test of this strategic success now begins on the ground, on our farms. The Rabi 2026 season has begun, and crores of farmers across the country are preparing to sow wheat.
The success of the rabi season rests on three main pillars: wheat acreage, availability of Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) fertiliser, and timely irrigation. If even one link weakens, it directly affects yield and the country’s food security. With this in mind, even before the start of the rabi season, the government has prepared a state-wise and month-wise assessment of fertiliser requirements and activated a digital monitoring system.
After the monsoon withdraws, the wheel of Indian agriculture turns towards the Rabi season. The period from the second fortnight of October to the end of November is considered the busiest and most sensitive time for crores of farmers. During this window, sowing begins for wheat, along with gram, mustard, barley and lentil.
The last week of October and the whole of November are regarded as the ideal sowing window for wheat. At this time, the right level of soil moisture and a balance in temperature are essential for seed germination. According to agricultural scientists, even a delay of 10 to 15 days in sowing wheat exposes the crop to a sudden rise in temperature during February-March, when the crop is maturing (terminal heat). The grain stays small, and overall yield can fall by 10 to 15 per cent.
But the moment a farmer prepares to plough his field, three basic questions confront him:
These three questions do not belong to any one district or state. They echo in every village of the five major states of northern and central India: Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which together produce nearly 75 to 80% of the country’s wheat.
For the Rabi 2026-27 season, the Union government has set a foodgrain production target of 177.72 million tonnes, of which wheat alone is expected to account for 121 million tonnes. The benchmark for this season is last year’s record sowing: according to Agriculture Ministry figures, wheat had been sown on 334.17 lakh hectares by 9 January 2026, against 328.04 lakh hectares a year earlier. Total rabi acreage stood at 652.33 lakh hectares by 16 January 2026, against 631.45 lakh hectares a year earlier. Last year’s wheat output is estimated at around 120 million tonnes. Fresh acreage figures for this season will start coming in only as sowing progresses.
Wheat is cultivated on a large scale in India. Uttar Pradesh leads in the country’s total wheat production, followed by Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. The estimated area in each state and its share in national production are considered very important figures.
The approximate position in the country’s five major wheat-producing states is as follows:
The first foundation of a good wheat yield is good-quality seed. The National Seeds Corporation (NSC), the State Seeds Development Corporations and private seed companies have claimed to have arranged adequate seed distribution for Rabi 2026.
According to government figures, the requirement of certified wheat seed for the Rabi 2026 season across the country is estimated at about 125 to 130 lakh quintals, against which government and private agencies are said to hold a stock of about 135 lakh quintals.
Considering the weather swings after sowing and at the time of maturing in recent years, the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) have promoted new varieties:
Although on paper the seed stock appears to be in surplus, farmers on the ground face two main difficulties:
Black-marketing of certified seed: At block-level agricultural societies, the supply of government-subsidised seed is reaching 20 to 30 per cent short of demand. As a result, farmers have to buy seed at higher prices from private dealers in the open market.
Risk of fake or poor-quality seed: Many private sellers are selling unverified or untagged seed in glossy packaging, leaving farmers at risk of being cheated.
Over its entire life cycle, a wheat crop needs, on average, 4 to 6 irrigations. The first irrigation, known as the Crown Root Initiation (CRI) stage, must be given within 21 to 25 days of sowing. If the crop does not get water at this juncture, fewer tillers form and the plant remains weak.
The success of rabi sowing depends directly on the monsoon that precedes it, because it leaves moisture in the soil and fills the reservoirs. The 2026 monsoon was itself under stress. By mid-September 2026, the south-west monsoon was headed for a national deficit of about 14 per cent, among the largest in recent years. The south was the worst hit, with rainfall around 22% per cent below normal between 1 June and 7 September.
The deficit was deep in the wheat belt too. Between 1 and 18 September 2026, Punjab recorded 56 per cent and Haryana 42 per cent less rain than normal, and Maharashtra 51 per cent less. In Haryana, ten districts, with rainfall deficits of 22 to 59 per cent, slipped into the “red zone”. In July, the state received 58.3 mm of rain, about 45 per cent below normal, and in August 138.5 mm against a normal of 146.1 mm, a deficit of about 5 per cent.
Reservoirs, the backbone of canal irrigation, reflect this. The Central Water Commission (CWC) monitors water levels in the country’s major reservoirs on a weekly basis. As on 2 July 2026, the 11 monitored reservoirs of northern India (Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan) held only 29.36 per cent of capacity, against 38 per cent a year earlier.
The Bhakra dam, the lifeline of Punjab and Haryana, tells the same story. As on 20 August 2026, it was only 53.9 per cent full, with storage of about 3,356 million cubic metres, which was 1,002 million cubic metres less than the mid-August level of the previous year. The very next day, the Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) had to ask the partner states (Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan) to hold back on additional withdrawals.
The state of groundwater and canal-fed reservoirs in various states is as follows:
Uttar Pradesh: Groundwater has reached a highly worrying (critical) level in more than 115 blocks of the state.
Madhya Pradesh: Big dams such as Indira Sagar and Gandhi Sagar support irrigation in the state, and groundwater is in a moderate-to-better condition.
Punjab: Storage in the Bhakra dam is well below last year’s level, and due to excessive irrigation, the state’s groundwater level has fallen severely; it falls in the over-exploited category.
Rajasthan: The Chambal and Rana Pratap Sagar dams support irrigation, but many parts of the state face a serious water crisis because of a heavy shortage of water underground.
Haryana: Haryana’s irrigation system depends largely on the Hathnikund Barrage, but several parts of the state have been included in dark zones because of continuously falling groundwater levels.
Punjab and Haryana: Water availability in the Sirhind Canal, the Bhakra Canal and the Western Yamuna Canal system depends on how much the reservoirs can release, and getting water to the tail-end (villages at the last stretch of the canal) remains a major administrative challenge even today.
Uttar Pradesh: Water has already been released into the Sharda Canal, the Upper Ganga Canal and the Lower Ganga Canal, but because the canals have not been cleaned and silt has not been removed, the speed of flow remains slow.
Rajasthan: The irrigation roster for rabi crops has been announced for Stage I and Stage II of the Indira Gandhi Canal Project (IGNP), but farmers in border districts such as Barmer and Jaisalmer are often angry over the tussle for water.
Where canal irrigation is not available, farmers depend entirely on diesel- or electricity-run tube wells.
Deepening water crisis in Punjab and Haryana: More than 115 of Punjab’s 153 development blocks fall in the ‘over-exploited’ category. Here the groundwater level has gone down by 150 to 300 feet, forcing farmers to install submersible motors of higher horsepower (HP).
Uninterrupted power supply: Providing at least 8 to 10 hours of uninterrupted power daily to tube wells during the Rabi season is a big test for state governments. If power is cut, irrigation cannot be done on time.
While deciding to sow wheat, a farmer also has in mind the guarantee of a fair price for the crop. On the basis of the recommendations of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), the Central Government fixes the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of wheat for each Rabi Marketing Season (RMS). Looking at the figures of the past few seasons, a good increase in the wheat MSP has been recorded every year:
RMS 2024-25: The MSP of wheat was fixed at ₹2,275 per quintal, an increase of ₹150 per quintal over the previous year.
RMS 2025-26: The government raised the MSP of wheat to ₹2,425 per quintal, and here too farmers got a direct increase of ₹150 per quintal.
RMS 2026-27: The MSP was announced in October 2025 at ₹2,585 per quintal, an increase of ₹160 per quintal, or 6.59 per cent. This is the crop that was sown in October 2025, harvested in March-April 2026 and procured by government agencies in April-June 2026.
An important point of timing follows from this. The wheat being sown now, in October 2026, will be harvested in March-April 2027 and will be sold in RMS 2027-28. The MSP for that season has not been announced yet. By convention, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) announces the rabi MSP around 1 October, that is, in the coming days. This is precisely the moment when the farmer is taking his sowing decision.
Procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state procurement agencies has seen ups and downs in recent rabi marketing seasons:
RMS 2024-25: About 26.6 million metric tonnes (MMT) of wheat was procured, which fell short of the government’s target of 30 to 32 million tonnes.
RMS 2025-26: Against a target of about 312 LMT, 256.31 LMT had been procured by 30 April 2025, which was 24.78 per cent higher than the 205.41 LMT procured by the same date the previous year. All five major procuring states, namely Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, procured more wheat than the year before.
RMS 2026-27: In March 2026, the government fixed a procurement target of 30.3 million tonnes for this season, with wheat output expected to touch about 120 million tonnes on record sowing of 33.41 million hectares. According to media reports citing the Food Ministry, procurement later crossed 35 million tonnes, exceeding the target of 34.5 million tonnes and running nearly 17 per cent above the previous season. The purpose of these large purchases is to keep enough foodgrain secure for the National Food Security Act (NFSA) and the Public Distribution System (PDS).
The government godown has fertiliser, but how much has reached the farmer’s field?
Ahead of the start of the Rabi 2026 season, the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilisers and the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) have made it clear that there is no shortage of fertilisers in the country and that the government is fully committed to providing fertiliser to farmers at affordable rates.
The Union Cabinet has approved the NBS rates for phosphatic and potassic (P&K) fertilisers for Kharif 2026 (1 April to 30 September 2026), with a budgetary requirement of ₹41,533.81 crore. The approved rates were ₹47.32 per kg for nitrogen, ₹52.76 per kg for phosphate, ₹2.38 per kg for potash and ₹3.16 per kg for sulphur.
The NBS rates for Rabi 2026-27, the season that is beginning now, have not been announced yet. Kharif 2026 ends on 30 September, so the rabi rates are due any day, at the very time sowing is starting in the fields. The timing gap is not new: last year, the Cabinet approved the Rabi 2025-26 rates on 28 October 2025, about four weeks after the season began on 1 October.
Under the government’s price-control arrangement, the bag weight and fixed MRP of the major fertilisers are as follows:
According to the official press release issued by the PIB (PIB Delhi) (PRID: 2288824), the government has provided special financial support to keep the 50-kg bag of DAP at a stable rate of ₹1,350:
Other cost support: A special ‘other cost’ support of ₹3,500 per metric tonne is given, over and above the NBS subsidy, on both domestic and imported DAP. It covers the cost from factory gate to field and the effect of fluctuations in international prices.
GST and 4% return: The GST component on DAP and a reasonable return of 4 per cent for companies are also covered within this support, so that fertiliser manufacturers or importing agencies do not put any additional burden on farmers.
Advance mapping: The Department of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare (DA&FW), in consultation with states, assesses state-wise and month-wise fertiliser requirements before the season.
iFMS tracking (Integrated Fertilizer Management System): The Department of Fertilizers tracks live the movement of fertilisers, from rake movement out of factories and ports to district godowns and retailers’ shops.
PoS biometric sales (PoS machine sales): Fertiliser is sold at shops only with biometric authentication (thumbprint) linked to the Aadhaar card, so that transparency is maintained.
India is the world’s largest importer of fertilisers. In the case of DAP and its raw materials, our dependence on foreign markets is very high.
Two main raw materials are needed to make DAP: phosphoric acid and rock phosphate. India imports about 80 to 90 per cent of its requirement of phosphoric acid and finished DAP.
India mainly imports DAP and phosphatic fertilisers from the following countries:
The availability of DAP and other phosphatic fertilisers in India depends to a large extent on the global market. Prices of finished DAP in the international market, as well as of the raw materials used to make it, also affect the subsidy and supply in the country.
The international rates of finished DAP and its raw materials are as follows:
Finished DAP: By the end of July 2026, the international benchmark price of DAP stood at about $854 per metric tonne (IMF) and about $781 per metric tonne (World Bank).
Phosphoric acid: Global rates of phosphoric acid, considered extremely important for making DAP, are recorded at around $920 to $980 per metric tonne.
Rock phosphate: The international price of rock phosphate, used as the main raw material in fertiliser production, is running at $210 to $240 per metric tonne.
According to the Department of Fertilisers, the global market price of DAP has been running at more than ₹5,000 per 50-kg bag, and urea at more than ₹4,100 per bag, as international prices climbed amid the Strait of Hormuz disruption and other geopolitical pressure. Against that, Indian farmers have continued to get urea at ₹266.5 per 45-kg bag and DAP at ₹1,350 per 50-kg bag, with the government absorbing the difference.
This gap has not narrowed heading into Rabi 2026-27. At the two-day National Agriculture Conference – Rabi Campaign 2026, held on 28-29 September 2026 at the National Agricultural Science Complex, Pusa, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan told states that the Centre is spending around ₹2 lakh crore a year on fertiliser subsidy, and that farmers are still getting urea at ₹266 per0 bag and DAP at ₹1,350 per bag. Taking the government’s own global-price figure of over ₹5,000 per bag for DAP against the ₹1,350 MRP, the Central Government is absorbing a subsidy of more than ₹3,650 per bag from its exchequer.
The Rabi 2026-27 NBS rates had still not been formally notified by the Cabinet as of the conference. By precedent, this approval tends to follow some weeks into the season: the Rabi 2025-26 NBS rates, for comparison, were approved by the Cabinet on 28 October 2025, with a budgetary requirement of ₹37,952.29 crore, and kept DAP at the same ₹1,350 through a ₹3,500-per-tonne ‘other cost’ package on top of the NBS subsidy (DD News). Under that package, the average retail prices of other key grades for 2025-26 were NPK 10:26:26 at ₹1,814.82, NPK 12:32:16 at ₹1,711.87, and MOP at ₹1,710.54 per 50-kg bag.
At the Rabi Campaign 2026 conference, Chouhan also asked states to extend the ‘Khet Bachao Abhiyan,’ launched during kharif, to the Rabi season, and pressed for balanced fertiliser use, cautioning that “if one bag is sufficient for a crop, there is no reason to apply two.”
Providing farmers adequate quantities of fertiliser during rabi and kharif crops is a priority of the government. The demand, supply, sales through DBT and remaining stock (closing stock) of the main fertilisers such as urea, DAP, NPK and MOP in the states give a clear idea of the agricultural supply system.
The most recent state-wise figures are those placed by the Union Minister for Chemicals and Fertilizers, J.P. Nadda, before Parliament. They cover Kharif 2026, from 1 April to 21 July 2026. State-wise data for Rabi 2026-27 will become available only as the season advances, so these figures serve as the benchmark and as a model of how the government measures its own claim. The state-wise details of requirement, availability and DBT sales (DBT Sales) of urea, DAP, NPK and MOP in the five major states, and at the national level (in lakh metric tonnes, LMT), are as follows:
Uttar Pradesh: In the state, against a urea requirement of 23.38 LMT, availability was 33.66 LMT, of which 17.36 LMT was sold and 16.30 LMT remains in stock. For DAP, against a requirement of 4.92 LMT and availability of 8.63 LMT, 3.45 LMT was sold and 5.17 LMT stock remains. For NPK, against a requirement of 1.95 LMT and availability of 6.26 LMT, after sales of 1.28 LMT a stock of 4.98 LMT is available. For MOP, against a demand of 1.42 LMT, availability was 1.37 LMT, of which 0.23 LMT was sold and 1.14 LMT stock remains.
Punjab: In Punjab, against a urea requirement of 11.69 LMT, 15.01 LMT was available, and after 11.77 LMT was sold, 3.24 LMT stock remains. For DAP, against a demand of 1.50 LMT, availability was recorded at 2.33 LMT, with sales of 1.31 LMT and a closing stock of 1.02 LMT. For NPK, against a requirement of 0.48 LMT, availability was 0.50 LMT, with sales of 0.18 LMT and stock of 0.32 LMT. For MOP, against a demand of 0.57 LMT, availability was 0.64 LMT, with sales of 0.21 LMT and stock of 0.43 LMT recorded.
Haryana: In Haryana, against a urea requirement of 6.05 LMT, 9.52 LMT was available, of which 7.31 LMT was sold and 2.21 LMT stock remains. For DAP, against a requirement of 1.25 LMT, availability was 1.61 LMT, and after sales of 1.17 LMT a stock of 0.44 LMT is available. For NPK, against a demand of 0.30 LMT, availability was 0.42 LMT, with sales of 0.16 LMT and stock of 0.26 LMT. For MOP, against a requirement of 0.39 LMT, availability was 0.38 LMT, with sales of 0.13 LMT and stock of 0.25 LMT recorded.
Madhya Pradesh: In Madhya Pradesh, against a urea requirement of 9.84 LMT, availability was recorded at 14.42 LMT, of which 8.97 LMT was sold and 5.45 LMT stock remains. For DAP, against a demand of 3.01 LMT, availability was 3.13 LMT, with sales of 2.13 LMT and stock of 1.00 LMT. For NPK, against a requirement of 4.26 LMT and availability of 6.69 LMT, after sales of 3.54 LMT a stock of 3.16 LMT is available. For MOP, against a demand of 0.77 LMT, availability was 0.58 LMT, with sales of 0.27 LMT and stock of 0.31 LMT remaining.
Rajasthan: In Rajasthan, against a urea requirement of 5.93 LMT, availability was 10.61 LMT, of which 6.73 LMT was sold and 3.87 LMT stock was recorded. For DAP, against a demand of 2.85 LMT, availability was 2.60 LMT, and after sales of 1.85 LMT a stock of 0.75 LMT remains. For NPK, against a requirement of 0.67 LMT, availability was 1.38 LMT, with sales of 0.65 LMT and stock of 0.73 LMT. For MOP, against a demand of 0.04 LMT, availability was 0.14 LMT, with sales of 0.04 LMT and a closing stock of 0.10 LMT recorded.
All-India (National Total): Across the country, against a total urea requirement of 112.09 LMT, availability was 166.78 LMT, and after sales of 97.98 LMT a closing stock of 68.79 LMT remains. For DAP, against a national requirement of 32.35 LMT, availability was 40.29 LMT, of which 23.52 LMT was sold and 16.77 LMT remains in stock. For NPK, against a demand of 49.58 LMT, availability was recorded at 85.56 LMT, with sales of 40.39 LMT and stock of 45.17 LMT, while for MOP, against a national requirement of 10.29 LMT, availability was 13.91 LMT, of which 5.32 LMT was sold and 8.61 LMT stock remains.
Paper surplus: At the national level, availability of 40.29 lakh metric tonnes of DAP is shown against a total requirement of 32.35 lakh metric tonnes, which at first glance looks like a comfortable position- and is consistent with the Department of Fertilizers’ own June 2026 assessment that Kharif 2026 opening stock ran ahead of requirement by more than 51 per cent, well above the traditional 33 per cent buffer standard.
Gap between demand and availability in Rajasthan: The requirement of DAP in Rajasthan was 2.85 LMT, while total availability was recorded at only 2.60 LMT. Even in the kharif period, a deficit of 0.25 LMT is visible.
Low closing stock in Madhya Pradesh: Against a demand of 3.01 LMT in Madhya Pradesh, availability is 3.13 LMT, and closing stock is only 1.00 LMT. Because sowing of wheat and gram begins together in Madhya Pradesh immediately after the soybean harvest, this 1.00 LMT stock gets exhausted at the district level very soon.
The big number in Uttar Pradesh: Availability in UP appears to be 8.63 LMT, but because the state is spread over 75 districts and an area of more than 98 lakh hectares, district-wise distribution shows disparity.
Despite the claim of ‘sufficient stock’ in government files, why do long queues of farmers form outside cooperative societies at the time of rabi sowing every year? To make an impartial inquiry into this contradiction, we have prepared an investigation framework:
Allocation vs Actual Arrival: The Central Government issues allocations to states according to their needs. But because of the availability of railway rakes and logistical hurdles from fertiliser factories or ports to district rake points, actual delivery of the material gets delayed by 7 to 10 days. By the time the rake is unloaded, the sowing window for farmers is running out.
Retail Availability and PACS Role: Primary Agricultural Credit Societies (PACS / cooperative societies) are the main channel for fertiliser distribution in rural areas. Ground surveys show that societies get only 40 to 50 per cent of their total demand of DAP at one time. As a result, the moment the fertiliser consignment arrives, 1,000 farmers gather for 200 bags, creating a stampede-like situation or a situation in which police have to be called.
The malpractice of ‘tagging’ and overpricing: When the farmer goes to private fertiliser sellers, instead of giving DAP for ₹1,350 the shopkeeper sets a condition:
Industrial use and cross-border smuggling (Industrial Diversion): Urea and DAP are also illegally used in several non-agricultural industries (such as plywood manufacturing, the dye industry and cattle feed). Subsidised fertiliser is sold through private dealers to industries at higher prices, causing a shortfall in supply to the agricultural sector.
Uttar Pradesh is the country’s largest wheat-producing state, where wheat is cultivated on about 100 lakh hectares. But the challenges differ across the state’s regions.
The details of the state’s four main regions, their main crops and ground challenges are as follows:
Wheat is sown on about 35 lakh hectares in Punjab. Punjab’s agricultural system is extremely intensive, with the use of chemicals and fertilisers per hectare being the highest in the country. The key figures of Punjab’s agricultural and irrigation profile are as follows:
Cooperative societies: Punjab’s structure of cooperative societies is quite strong. The state government claims that more than 80 per cent of DAP is being distributed through cooperative societies. However, towards the end of October, farmers in the Malwa belt (Bathinda, Mansa, Sangrur) had to stand in queues from 4 am to get fertiliser tokens.
Challenge of power supply: During the rabi season, the Punjab government claims to give 8 hours of free electricity daily for tube-wells. But with rising grid load on PowerCom (PSPCL), cuts begin on rural feeders, which affects the first irrigation of wheat.
The wheat area in Haryana is about 25.5 to 26 lakh hectares. Karnal, Kurukshetra, Ambala and Hisar are the state’s main wheat-producing districts.
Tail-end crisis of canal water: Despite water being released from the Bhakra and Western Yamuna canals, getting water to the tail-end of the canal in the districts of Sirsa, Bhiwani and Mahendragarh remains difficult. Farmers in southern Haryana are forced to irrigate with saline tube-well water, which is damaging soil health.
Action against black-marketing of DAP: The Haryana Agriculture Department, together with the CM Flying Squad, raided several private fertiliser sellers in Kurukshetra and Jind. The investigation found that many sellers were selling DAP at higher prices by making fake entries in PoS machines.
Wheat acreage in Madhya Pradesh has grown at an unprecedented pace over the past decade to reach 65 to 68 lakh hectares. Besides, because of geographical and climatic variation in Madhya Pradesh, cropping patterns and fertiliser needs differ considerably from one division to another, and with the start of the rabi season, the pattern of demand for DAP fertiliser also changes across the state’s regions.
The details of the state’s main divisions, their cropping cycles and the state of DAP demand are as follows:
Malwa (Indore/Ujjain): In this region, the cycle is one of sowing wheat and gram after the soybean harvest, because of which demand for DAP fertiliser suddenly rises sharply in the last weeks of October.
Narmadapuram (Hoshangabad): In this region, where wheat is taken after paddy, canal irrigation facilities are good, but farmers face a shortage of DAP at the time of sowing.
Chambal (Gwalior/Morena): In this area, which grows mustard and wheat after the harvest of bajra, there is a double demand for DAP for both the main rabi crops.
Mahakoshal (Jabalpur): In this region, wheat and lentil are sown after paddy, and the availability of irrigation is considered moderate.
Ground issue: In Madhya Pradesh, farmers begin sowing wheat and gram, while moisture remains, immediately after the harvest of the kharif crop (soybean). Because of this, there is a sudden heavy demand for DAP in the second and third weeks of October. Long protests by farmers outside godowns have been seen in Mandsaur, Neemuch, Ujjain and Vidisha, where the police had to step in to control crowds.
In Rajasthan, wheat acreage in Rabi 2026 is estimated at 30 to 32 lakh hectares and mustard acreage at about 35 to 40 lakh hectares. Since mustard is also cultivated on a large scale along with wheat during the Rabi season in Rajasthan, irrigation in large parts of the state depends mainly on canal projects, where fertiliser supply in the early phase of sowing becomes an important aspect.
The key figures on agriculture, canal irrigation and fertiliser supply in Rajasthan are as follows:
Wheat area: The estimated area under wheat cultivation in the state remains between 30.00 and 32.00 lakh hectares.
Mustard area: In Rajasthan, a leader in oilseed production, the estimated area under mustard is recorded at 35.00 to 40.00 lakh hectares.
Major irrigation projects: The main support of irrigation for a large agricultural area of the state is the Indira Gandhi Canal Project (IGNP- Sriganganagar/Hanumangarh) and the Chambal canal system (Kota division).
DAP availability: In the Kharif 2026 figures (up to 21 July), availability of DAP in the state was 2.60 LMT against a requirement of 2.85 LMT, a shortfall of about 0.25 LMT.
Double pressure of mustard and wheat: In Rajasthan, sowing of mustard begins before wheat (from the end of September to October). Mustard also needs DAP for phosphorus. Therefore, demand for DAP in the state begins in September itself and continues till November.
Indira Gandhi Canal Project (IGNP): In the Sriganganagar and Hanumangarh districts, a roster for running the canal in two of four groups has been issued for Rabi crops. But in the western Rajasthan districts of Barmer and Bikaner, balancing drinking water and irrigation water is proving a difficult challenge for the administration.
One major reason for the shortage of DAP in India is the imbalanced use of chemical fertilisers in our soil. The ideal ratio of nitrogen, phosphorus and potash (N:P:K) in the country is considered to be 4:2:1, but in many states it has deteriorated to 8:3:1 or even higher.
Under the Soil Health Card scheme started by the government in 2014-15, more than 26 crore cards have so far been distributed across the country.
Study findings (MANAGE and NPC Study): Studies by the National Institute of Agricultural Extension Management (MANAGE), Hyderabad, and the National Productivity Council (NPC) have shown that farmers who applied fertiliser as per the recommendations of the Soil Health Card saw:
Alternatives to DAP: To deal with a shortage or heavy demand for DAP at the time of sowing, farmers can use several excellent alternatives. These not only provide the necessary nutrients to plants but are also quite beneficial for soil health. A comparison of the main alternatives to DAP recommended by the Ministry of Agriculture, their nutrient composition and benefits is as follows:
In its evaluation of the Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) scheme, NITI Aayog has made several important suggestions that the government needs to act on immediately:
Bringing urea also under the NBS: At present, a controlled price applies to urea, while P&K fertilisers are under the NBS. Because of this, urea is very cheap, and farmers apply excessive urea. Bringing urea under the NBS will promote balanced fertiliser use.
DBT directly into the farmer’s bank account: At present, the fertiliser subsidy is given to companies. If it is sent directly to the farmer’s Aadhaar-linked bank account (Direct to Bank Account) on a per-acre basis, black-marketing, industrial leakage and hoarding will automatically end.
Digital rake tracking and a real-time public dashboard: Instead of remaining only with officials, district-wise data on DAP arrivals and stock available in godowns should go live on a public mobile app or portal (Public Mobile App / Portal), so that farmers can see how much fertiliser is available at their nearest centre.
Climate-smart agriculture and micro-irrigation: Promote ‘zero tillage’ / Happy Seeder technology for sowing wheat, so that wheat can be sown among paddy residue without ploughing the field. This conserves soil moisture and saves 20 to 30 per cent of water in the first irrigation.
Through its strategic ‘fertiliser diplomacy’ on the international stage, India managed to arrange fertiliser for the country despite the global crisis. By capping the price of DAP at ₹1,350 through budgetary subsidy of thousands of crores of rupees, the Central Government has built a commendable safety shield. But the success of this entire exercise depends on whether the fertiliser lying in government godowns reaches the farmer’s field on time, without any black-marketing, any forced ‘tagging’ and any administrative delay.
Rabi 2026 is not merely a crop season; it is a test of the country’s food security, farmers’ incomes and our administrative transparency. Only when the right seed, DAP delivered transparently, and irrigation water on time come together, lush wheat crops sway in our fields and the country’s granaries remain secure.
Striking fertiliser deals at the international level is one thing, but the real challenge is getting that fertiliser to the village farmer at the right time- that is, ensuring ‘last-mile delivery’. The digital monitoring system and paper allocation figures will prove effective only when farmers at societies and sales centres get fertiliser at the fixed rate, without long queues and black-marketing.
If the Centre and state governments together succeed in keeping this supply chain transparent at the local level, then not only will wheat acreage remain secure, but this Rabi season of 2026 will also lead the country towards a bumper harvest. After all, the real success of ‘fertiliser diplomacy’ will be decided by whether the farmer standing on the bund of his field got his bag of fertiliser when he needed it.
When major global agricultural supply centres across Eastern Europe and the Middle East faced severe disruption, India confronted potential supply chain vulnerabilities reminiscent of earlier decades. Disruptions to fertiliser imports could have reduced domestic crop yields, driven up food inflation, and strained national economic stability. Instead, strategic supply management mitigated these risks through deliberate policy execution:
The IIT Bombay controversy opens a wider debate over humanities in technology institutions, tracing ideological imbalance, campus activism and global university conflicts before examining how standalone humanities programmes expanded across IITs and gained institutional influence.
Facial recognition can connect missing-child photographs with found-child records across states, while AI, CCTV and digital trails open new leads. Yet a machine match is only a lead until investigators independently verify identity and circumstances.
Selected issues, clear explanations and thoughtful perspectives—delivered when we publish.
