As the clock struck two on the afternoon of 10 September 2026, a new figure flashed across the massive digital monitor in the control room of the National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC) – 2,69,214 MW (269.2 GW). This was India’s highest-ever peak power demand recorded in the month of September. Despite being a monsoon month, a lull in rainfall across vast swathes of Northern and Central India, combined with stifling humidity and millions of agricultural pumps running to irrigate fields, pushed electricity demand to levels typically witnessed during the severe heatwaves of May and June.
However, this historic milestone presented the nation’s energy think tanks and policymakers with a grave and paradoxical question. On one hand, government statistics show that India is expanding renewable energy at the fastest pace globally, with non-fossil sources accounting for over 54% of our total installed power capacity. On the other hand, as the sun set on the evening of 10 September, the grid was forced to knock on the door of its oldest and largest ally, coal, at full capacity to manage this massive surge in demand.
A question naturally arises in the mind of every ordinary citizen: when solar panels are being installed in every corner of the country and wind turbines are spinning, why does the grid remain so heavily reliant on coal during moments of crisis? Is India’s green energy model failing, or is there another underlying technical logic behind this entire Electricity Story?
To fuel an economy racing ahead at an annual growth rate of 7% to 8%, India requires energy at a matching pace. Figures from the Central Electricity Authority’s 20th Electric Power Survey (EPS) report and the ‘National Electricity Plan’ reveal that this current level of power consumption is merely the beginning.
India’s electricity demand is rising continuously, and a record surge is projected in the coming years.
The projection for India’s peak power demand from the year 2023 to 2032 shows a steady upward trajectory. In 2023-24, the country’s peak electricity demand stood at 243.3 gigawatts (GW), which is estimated to increase to 250.2 GW in 2024-25. Following this, the demand is expected to reach 270.0 GW by 2026-27. Looking further ahead, this figure is projected to rise sharply to 334.3 GW in 2029-30, eventually reaching a record level of 366.4 GW by 2031-32.
In the past, the primary drivers of growth in India’s electricity demand were new household connections (rural electrification) and general industrial growth. However, in the India of 2026, three new and extraordinarily massive engines have joined the grid to fuel this thirst for power:
The greatest strength of solar power is simultaneously its primary limitation: it is available only as long as the sun is shining in the sky. Power system engineers refer to this operational grid crisis as the ‘Duck Curve‘.
During daylight hours (from 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM), when India’s solar parks (such as Bhadla, Pavagada, or Rewa) generate power at peak capacity, cheap and abundant electricity floods the grid. Consequently, power generators dial down the generation at their thermal power plants to minimum technical limits. During the day, solar power stands out as the hero of the grid.
As 6:00 PM approaches, two events occur simultaneously in opposite directions:
As a result, a massive power deficit of 60,000 MW to 80,000 MW opens up across the grid within a brief 45-to-60-minute window. To plug this sudden gap, a power source is required that can immediately switch on and supply power at full capacity, unaffected by weather conditions. Since we do not yet possess sufficient ‘utility-scale batteries’ to store daytime solar energy for evening use, the only viable method to prevent grid trips is to feed coal into the boilers of thermal plants.
Whenever environmental reforms in the energy sector are discussed in India, the question is frequently raised as to why the government continues to sanction new coal-fired power plants. However, data indicates a vast disparity between installed nameplate capacity and actual power generation.
As of July 2026, approximately 54% of India’s total installed capacity is derived from renewable and non-fossil sources – a remarkable achievement on paper. Yet, when analysing the exact proportion of actual electricity units (kWh) generated from each source over the course of a year, a distinctly different picture emerges:
When the country recorded a historic peak demand of 269.2 GW on 10 September 2026, the contribution from various energy sources was distributed as follows:
Mindful of this ground reality, the Ministry of Coal and the Ministry of Power have stated explicitly that India cannot phase out its thermal capacity by 2030.
Under the Central Electricity Authority’s (CEA) plan, the Government of India has initiated the process of adding between 80,000 MW (80 GW) and 97,000 MW of new coal-based capacity. Of this, over 38,745 MW of ultra-supercritical power plants are currently in various stages of construction. These modern supercritical units consume 20% less coal and emit significantly lower emissions compared to older plants.
This expansion of coal is not an anti-environmental measure; rather, it is a practical national strategy and an absolute necessity to safeguard 1.4 billion citizens and domestic industries against power outages.
When solar power vanishes in the evening, the primary and fastest tool available to grid operators to manage sudden load spikes, second only to coal, is hydropower.
The defining advantage of a hydro turbine is its ability to ramp up from zero to full operational capacity within just 2 to 3 minutes, whereas bringing a cold thermal coal unit online requires 6 to 12 hours. Consequently, during evening peak hours, hydropower plays a crucial role in stabilising grid frequency at 50 Hz.
However, the primary catalyst behind the compounding crisis in September 2026 was the underperformance of India’s major reservoirs.
The data reviewed in our detailed assessment of the nation’s water resources and reservoir levels confirms a deeply concerning scenario:
According to recent data from the Central Water Commission (CWC), water storage levels across 166 major reservoirs (dams and water bodies) in the country were recorded below normal levels during this year’s monsoon. A regional breakdown indicates:
Overall, the impact of water scarcity has hit reservoirs in the southern states hardest, while central and western regions have experienced comparatively moderate deficits.
As per the Central Water Commission (CWC) report, rainfall distribution during the 2026 monsoon was highly uneven. Due to monsoon lulls lasting several weeks, total live storage across the country’s 166 key reservoirs reached only 68% to 70% of their total capacity.
When the monsoon lull caused storage levels across 166 major reservoirs to drop 8% to 15% below normal, maintaining grid stability during evening peak hours became a critical challenge. With hydropower output dropping to 24,000 MW, thermal coal units were forced to operate under severe overloading to plug the resulting 8,000 MW deficit.
To mitigate this challenge and foster decentralised clean energy, the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) has issued revised guidelines for the ‘Small Hydro Power (SHP) Scheme’. Targeted at project capacities up to 25 MW, the scheme aims to bolster local electricity supply across mountainous and remote areas.
The government has approved a financial outlay of ₹320 crore through 2026-27 to extend Central Financial Assistance (CFA) for constructing new projects, conducting surveys, and renovating or modernising defunct private small hydro plants. This initiative is designed to alleviate strain on the central coal-dependent grid during peak hours.
When winds drop, the sun sets, and river flows diminish, running a modern economy demands a power source that provides rock-solid, round-the-clock, 365-day electricity without carbon emissions. In scientific terms, this source is known as ‘clean base-load power’.
And the only proven answer to this is Nuclear Power.
Currently, India’s installed nuclear capacity stands at approximately 8.78 GW, accounting for roughly 3% of the nation’s total electricity generation. However, the Government of India has resolved to position nuclear energy at the core of its future energy strategy.
According to India’s Nuclear Power Expansion roadmap, a large-scale expansion of nuclear energy capacity is planned. At present (in 2026), India’s nuclear power capacity stands at 8.78 gigawatts (GW), which is expected to rise to 14.8 GW by 2028. Beyond this, plans are in place to reach a target of 20 GW by 2031-32. The long-term vision (2047 Vision) is exceptionally ambitious, aiming to scale India’s total nuclear power capacity to 100 GW by 2047, marking the centenary of the nation’s independence.
India’s nuclear power program has now gained significant momentum through indigenous technology and commercial execution:
Solar and wind energy alone will not suffice to achieve Net-Zero Emissions for India by 2070. Until India secures a nuclear base-load capacity ranging between 50 GW and 100 GW, completely phasing out coal thermal power plants will remain unfeasible.
The historic peak power demand of 2,69,214 MW (269.2 GW) recorded on 10 September 2026 reaffirmed that solar and wind energy alone cannot shield the grid from blackouts. As solar generation plummets to zero at dusk, coal and lignite thermal power continues to shoulder over 70% of total supply. Consequently, India is adding over 80,000 MW of modern ultra-supercritical coal capacity, which consumes 20% less fuel compared to older generation units.
Nevertheless, to achieve its long-term 2047 Nuclear Vision of 100 GW, India is accelerating the deployment of indigenous nuclear and grid technologies. At the IAEA General Conference, India officially declared its readiness to export its indigenous 220 MW Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR) design to developing nations across the Global South.
Furthermore, joint initiatives between the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), ISRO, and BARC are driving breakthroughs in nuclear waste management and Small Modular Reactor (SMR) development. To bolster operational reliability across power plants, the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) has also deployed AI-driven tools, including an ‘On-line Pipe Thickness Monitoring System’, for grid operators and power stations.
As highlighted in detail in our series on India’s storage revolution, Energy Storage Systems (ESS) represent the ultimate bridge that will carry India towards a coal-free, clean energy future. Two primary technologies are being deployed to bridge this evening power gap:
BESS (Battery Energy Storage System): Large containerised lithium-ion and Advanced Chemistry Cell (ACC) battery banks that charge on excess solar power during the day and discharge power back into the grid for up to 4 hours in the evening.
PSP (Pumped Storage Projects): Functioning as a type of ‘natural water battery’, daytime surplus electricity is used to pump water from a lower reservoir to an upper mountain reservoir. In the evening, when power demand peaks, water is released downwards to spin turbines and generate instant electricity.
Where India stands today compared to the Central Electricity Authority’s (CEA) 2030 national roadmap is clearly detailed in the breakdown below:
India has set an ambitious target to scale its total power storage capacity to 73.9 gigawatts (GW) or 411 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2030-31, whereas the country’s present total capacity stands at just 7.2 GW. This indicates that India is currently navigating a major transition phase.
In terms of specific technologies, a target of 47.2 GW (236 GWh) has been earmarked for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) by 2030, against which India currently possesses only 2.5 GW (5 GWh) of operational capacity. However, progress is accelerating through government Viability Gap Funding (VGF) schemes and fresh tenders.
On the other hand, the 2030 target for Pumped Storage Projects (PSP), which store energy using water, is set at 26.7 GW (175 GWh). India’s position is relatively stronger here, with 4.7 GW capacity already operational and another 11 GW currently under construction. Construction work is being fast-tracked across hilly states and abandoned mines to achieve this goal.
To transform abundant daytime solar energy into evening ‘peak load’ supply across India’s grid, understanding the right balance of storage technology is essential. The interactive model below illustrates how scaling up Battery Storage (BESS) and Pumped Storage (PSP) capacity progressively reduces the reliance on thermal power during evening hours:
When explained in simple terms, the Storage Architecture Model presents the clearest picture of India’s energy transition. When the combined grid capacity of BESS (battery storage) and PSP (pumped storage) stands at just 7.2 GW, coal-fired thermal plants are forced to single-handedly generate over 185 GW to meet the 8:00 PM peak demand of 269 GW. This translates to a high Plant Load Factor (PLF) of nearly 80% to 85% for thermal units.
However, as you adjust the model to scale battery storage (BESS) toward its 2030 target of 47 GW and pumped hydro (PSP) toward 27 GW, the operational scenario between 6:00 PM and 10:00 PM undergoes a complete transformation. An additional 74 GW of electricity generated by solar panels during the day is stored in these batteries and elevated reservoirs. As dusk falls, this 74 GW of clean energy immediately streams into the grid, pulling the load on coal plants down to between 110 GW and 120 GW.
This directly implies that as storage projects come online, the role of thermal power plants will shift from ‘primary generators’ to ’emergency backups’. Until this storage capacity is fully established, coal will remain the sole shield protecting the grid from blackouts.
The record peak power demand of 269 GW recorded on 10 September 2026, and the subsequent surge in coal consumption, is by no means a sign of failure. It represents the most natural and pragmatic reality of the ‘Energy Transition’ taking place in a vast, diverse, and rapidly developing nation like India.
We must move past the misconception that expanding solar energy and consuming coal are mutually exclusive or contradictory trends.
Daytime belongs to indigenous solar power: During the day, solar energy delivers the cheapest power to our economy, saves billions of dollars in foreign expenditure on imported oil and coal, and keeps domestic industries globally competitive.
Evening belongs to operational security: As night falls and nature rests, coal, hydropower, and nuclear energy step in to keep our homes lit and protect the grid from collapse.
This ‘other face’ of India’s energy narrative demonstrates that transitioning to green energy is not a magical overnight transformation. It is a sustained marathon. As utility-scale battery banks, pumped storage hydro projects, and nuclear reactors detailed in Raju Das’s reporting integrate into the grid over the next 5 to 10 years, the reliance on evening coal generation will naturally taper off.
Until then, coal and renewables are not adversaries; they are the two robust wheels driving India’s growth trajectory forward without interruption.
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